Saturday, September 20, 2008

DON'T BE SUCKERED, MAKE MONEY AT HORSE RACING


A GOOD TIPSTER IS A MUST IF YOU DO NOT HAVE REQUISITE KNOWLEDGE

There is no shame in following certain successful tipsters through their blogs and otherwise, but that doesn't mean you follow different tipsters for different races, choose a tipster for a day and follow him, if its a card of 8 races the tipsters will deliver 3-5 winners. If you play all races, you might end up in a loss, because few of these winners will be at short odds, however if you pick and choose, there is every chance that you will end up making money.

Another method is following tipsters for types of races, for example, there are tipsters with good record in low class races, and tipsters who are specialist and deliver high percentage of winners in graded and listed races. There are many tipsters around that favor the longer odds horses, it is best left to your judgment which type of races he usually gets longer odds winners in. I know a particular blog which favors longer odds and usually finds winners in sprints, so following him when unsure of favorites in a sprint is a good strategy.

There are also center specific tipsters, they specialize at the horses of a particular center, pay attention to them, they have vast knowledge of the conditions, horses, professionals and owners and know the trends better than most. It's true after punting for few weeks a punter thinks he knows all, but being prudent is being a man who understands that there are others who also have a point of view and certain people are seldom wrong.

Many punters get frustrated with one bad day and vent their ire at tipsters and leave shameful comments on the blogs, well my dear friends, if racing was so predictable, all trainers and jockeys would have beaten Ambani's and Mittals in riches. This also gives us another principal, expect the unexpected. What you expect never really happens in life and its more true at the race course, when you enter the turf club you maybe bubbling with enthusiasm, having pin pointed certain winners, but then you see the hype around these horses being destroyed over the course of the race. There is only one way to differentiate between hype and reality and that's knowledge.

'KNOWLEDGE IS THE KEY'

A good horse race betting strategy involves gathering all of the knowledge you can about a particular race. One should prefer horses that are previous winners, or ran close to winners, choosing a horse that has won before is a betting strategy that often works, but it still has certain parameters and theories before a bet is made, a youngster is often considered difficult for win when giving weight to another youngster despite a comfortable previous winning outing.

Form is important, stick to horses who have recently run in a race and were creditable performers, this shows they are fit and their legs will be ready to compete. Close finishers within couple of lenghts are ready to strike soon. A horse that is coming after a lay off shows that it may have suffered a recent injury or sickness. It doesn’t matter how good they were before their break, chances are they will need to get back to track form. As you watch creditable performers, its also prudent to keep a watch on fit horses who are non jobbers, they are on a weight reduction mission or lowering class mission and are potential goli's to watch out for. Well seems too much work...leave this job to tipsters they are keeping a watch and such horses are always in their fluke list a couple of races before they are actually tried.

'JOCKEYS HOLD THE WHIP!'

Jockeys are also in form or out of it like horses, so one must also gain knowledge about the jockeys, some jockeys are masters on tracks, they give the animals their workouts and prepare them for races, but in a race they might foil all the chances of the horse to win, so every jockey have different specializations, good jockeys turn dud's into real thoroughbreds during a race, while others are capable of turning winners into losers with inept handling, some are good at running non jobbers, and make a hash of it when they go for a win.

'DON'T CHASE LOSSES'

You must have a figure for the loss limit, beyond which call it quits and live to fight for another day. Don't increase amount of bet when losing, on a bad day, the losses will pile up, as there never are 100% winners, even the sure shots have been known to lose because they burst a blood vessel or turned in lame, or an accident forces the rider to fall of the horse or...it is slow off...anything can happen, so keep your betting unit constant. If you lose, go slow, make smaller bets, because chasing your losses you can lose enough to be off racing altogether in a short time. I have seen many punters come and go in last three decades, however most of the book making companies are the same. So when its a bookmakers day...give him less...as less as possible Do

'ANALYSE THE ODDS'

If you do all above right you come to the most crucial aspect of winning, wagering ...to successfully win, one must analyse the odds, spot worthy favorites, and if you feel the horse isn't a worthy favorite, its better to eat than play, and more successful to win consistently, picking a winner is difficult, picking a loser is easier. Odds movement in the market gives clues to chances at race, the jobbers have shortening odds and losers odds are most likely to drift higher, many people get suckered when they find their much hyped horse at a better price...and back it only to lose. Learning how to spot the better odds and weigh them against the horses in the race is a good way to strengthen a horse race betting strategy. Most accurate resources to turn to when investigating the odds of a horse race available today are tipsters who have their blogs, regular visit to your favorite tipsters will surely give you early warning systems and you will be well prepared early to sight right horses with right odds in the ring. Usually, these tipsters have years of experience, which comes in pretty handy when choosing winners.

'TRACK CONDITIONS'

When you pay attention to the track conditions, you might be able to incorporate this information into your strategy, tracks that are slow or heavy provide good racing conditions for fast starters. Horses that tend to take the lead early succeed better with muddy, slow, or heavy track conditions, as we saw in Pune races recently.

'FINALLY'

It takes time for one to be aware of so many things, and I have come across people who have a hole in their pockets because they like to bash these tipsters , one miss by the tipsters and these frustrated losers resort to abusing them, some of them consider themselves as Nostradamus of racing, honestly we stop seeing them soon enough, and don't even miss them. Making money is difficult, but losing it is very easy. One of the eminent tipsters wrote a wonderful thing to me in an e-mail, he considers horses as stocks and invests in them, he is a successful and respected tipster, and if you find such a gem around you, you will surely end up making money.

Monday, September 15, 2008

DEMOCRACY IS NOW AN OLD IDEA-WE NEED SOMETHING NEW

In the current world that we live in things are changing much faster than we could have imagined five decades ago. The way we live is changing drastically, where we live in has changed, how we live is changing the planet, it's environment and climate as well. Terrorism has changed the manner we agitate and wage war...only thing that isn't changing is the way we are governed and how we need to govern ourselves in this modern fast paced world.

Multiple bombs ripped the heart of Delhi last weekend, the capital of governance of our nation, which amply demonstrates how inadequate the current system of governance is. We are an democratic nation, with pretense of being socialist at heart, while socialism and communism have been proven to be totally inept systems of governance and social justice, it's sad no one realizes the Democracy that is pursued in our nation is equally sick and ineffective.

Democracy is an ancient idea, it is 2500 years old, democracy flourished in Greece, and in modern times, while ideas of freedom, liberty, equality and self governance are still appealing and fresh, the delivery system of these ideas have started to do just the opposite...our Democratic structure is such, that none of the ideals are being fulfilled.

This system is so corrupt that even when we wake up the milkman is mixing milk with water, and after we sleep, lobbyist are greasing palms to ensure big bucks rule over the interest of the common man.

Self governance is only a notion, when Lincoln gave the slogan...government of the people, by the people for the people, it was in 1860's, that slogan is taught in the Indian civics books, but in effect it does not exist any longer.

So what exists? The powerful and monied (Bahubali as they are known) and stark criminal record sheeter s get elected to our parliament. Why...because there is a fear psychosis that makes people of the region vote for them.

This is not what Democracy should be...media keeps blaring about these people but what happens? Nothing...why? Because these lawbreakers are lawmakers.

In effect in India and elsewhere, in so called democracies we have a ruling class, where the baton is passed from one generation to another, so what kind of Democracy is this? It sounds more like autocratic Monarchical system.

Now when the power is in hands of a few, we find lobbies behind these power brokers, a system of coterie, sycophants, and parasites forms where people attached to these groups are sticking on for their own benefits...so who looks after the benefit of the common man.

The political parties learn t from the British to rule his country you have to divide and rule, so what we have in our country now is a society fragmented by castes, creed, SC, SCT, OBC and so forth. Local parties are flourishing on these principals and what we get after elections is a fragmented result and a hung parliament leading to coalition governments where all ruling parties have their business agenda and not ruling the nation in mind.

Truth is that governments benefit other economies, whether they are of other countries or large companies and running of the nation is like running of a business corporation in modern world.

So politicians are actually businessmen in garb of serving public, and all this leads us to conclude that Democracy is not actually the Democracy that we thought to be. Then what is the solution, how can we find another system, and bring it into place soon enough. You must have heard it many times that people opine that we need dictatorship to run our nation properly, no that isn't a solution.

So where is the solution? I can see the answer lying right within the problem itself. What are the problems i) Politicians winning due to their power ii)Bahubalis winning due to the fear they create iii) many regional parties playing king makers detrimental to the interests of this nation.

So how do we over come it? We have to take a simple step...which will be a leap towards better governance. The simple step is... ratification of winning candidates by two other constituencies.

For example if a criminal in Bihar wins election sitting in his jail cell, he still cannot win if his election isn't ratified by two constituencies which do not border the state the candidate's constituency is in. So suppose a criminal wins an election vote, but receives veto in Kolkata and Begaluru, he is gone, this simple system will eliminate criminals getting into parliament, this ratification will help reduce the power of King maker parties whose candidates win only in their constituency but have no appeal elsewhere, so while they may flourish in their region they will have no chance at the centre if the candidate isn't worth while enough to get a vote from two other regions.

This will bring two party system back at the center. Not only now the winning candidate will have local mass appeal but will have broader national support as well. Imagine the windfall for the people of India if this happens.

Such a ratification will lead to better candidates coming in, who are more inclined towards the public and they will definitely take the old idea of Democracy forward by listening to people and we might actually see a government of the people, by the people and for the people in our lifetime.

But will this happens? Difficult till we have nepotism and criminals in our politics, we need one good leader to stand up and fight for the Nation's good...where is this 'one' leader? We desperately need him.


Tuesday, September 09, 2008

BLOGGING AWAY TO PROFIT

How internet has affected the world's commerce is well known and documented. The effect it has had on communities which were reclusive, reluctant and perhaps taboo is still not known.

There is one community in India which is blossoming with the advent of blogging, and that's the racing community. Horse racing in India is still not very respected despite it being the sport of the King's and King of Sport. The avid race goers have been sharply divided into the knowledgeable and ignorant. The bettors are more unequally divided into smart and the herd mentality mass. Any one who has been associated with horse racing learns a lesson that inside information never works, if it had, all trainers, jockeys and owners would be billionaires and bookies would cease to exist. The fact is a very small percentage of bettors manage to exist after five years of racing, most wither away having made insurmountably losses. The fact is in last thirty years I have seen many huge punters come and go, but the bookmakers are still the same.

That doesn't mean one must become a bookmaker to make money in racing, one can bet and survive, and suddenly the few good men who are knowledgeable have decided to share it all with punters and what we have a vibrant community of bloggers who follow their tipsters and I know many are making a profit.

The advent of these blogs meant there would be a few normal tipsters and few out of the ordinary. The first maverick and extraordinary blog was destiny calling started by Mr. Raj Gopal Nair, he has a unique system of DFR, which you can apply to the tips of your favorite tipster and laugh all the way to profit, it dosen't mean that the DFR system is in fallible, it is, but still it is the first proper system of rating and odds in Indian blogosphere and still the best performing.

Another unique blog is racing-info.blogspot, this blog has taken online bloggers community with storm, there are many firsts to the credit of this blog, it is interactive, and has a live room where blog members share the whole racing experience together. The main contributors are Like of Abel D Raj, whose rating system is amongst the best...his graded race selections are usually infallible and has a huge strike rate with his full 100 rating thoroughbreds. Then there is Ravi a delhi based contributor, who is amiable always ready to help and finally Charan from Calcutta, who I guess doesnt not follow any of the systems but has a knack of picking five six winners in a day like it is as normal thing to do as breathing. Charan has avid and mad supporters today, he too has bad days, but those who follow Charan have not yet paid their bookies a single dime since live room has started, after the week it is always cash in instead of pay out.

Suddenly the racing community which thrived on connections, inside informations, which others used to conceal and sometimes let out wrong information for malicious purposes is history. We get educated tips, one can look to Shyam, Tiger, Swamybabu, and Madhu all of whose blogs have tips according to their systems.

However today, there is none better than racing-info, where i have made friends, we share views, knowledge, happiness and sorrows, and suddenly...to hell with information...and we are making money.

I am sure we are still a small community...but the way we are blogging to profits...the numbers are set to increase...who knows in three years we'll have more people on this blog than at the course when races are on...