IN HAPPIER TIMES
Situation across the border is changing dramatically, foes turned into friends & foes again after mission 'out' Musharraf was accomplished. I am not being a devil's advocate but the events are pointing towards confrontation in Pakistani politics which can have ample ramifications and spillage across the border on our side. Things can never be seen in isolation, and they never should be, whatever is happening in Kashmir is an ample proof of the spillage.
Musharraf has vacated office, he must be the rarest of the dictator's to bow out with immense dignity and face. It must be to Musharraf's credit that this man has well honed survival instincts and uses adversity to his credit. While the world is going ga ga about the fact it has rid itself of a great dictator, the events unfolding in Pakistan show that he may be out but not yet without a clout.
It wasn't without reason Musharraf allowed USA to fire missiles from Pakistani territory on targets in Pakistani territory. Today Musharraf can rely on those upon whom he has doled out favors. Musharraf knows the moment he allowed Pakistan to become an ally in war against terror, he will cause these terror elements to go against him forever, nothing will change that. The growing power of India on world stage quickly changed Musharraf to change tones, the very man who sunk the Agra summit for his hard stand on Kashmir, suddenly harped on various middle ground solutions when he realized the world will never support his way on the issue.
So what's the situation after him? Simple, Pakistan's democracy is in a crisis, there is a minority government, the way issues are going downhill and Musharraf must be smiling. Now the existence of democracy in Pakistan in a barely few months has left created a large leader from SINDH, and another a large leader from PUNJAB, with ungoverned tribal areas having their tall separatist leaders this is perhaps the 'time' when Pakistan has been most fractured in it's history.
While a large section of civil society of urban Pakistan is progressive and forward looking it still cannot match the manner in which polity is degenerating the state. Now comes the major question... what happens to a divided Pakistan?
The first knee jerk reaction will come from Pakistani army, it will like to keep it all together, and the single issue that binds Pakistan is Kashmir. Full stop.
Expect incursions to increase, expect cease fire on LOC to be history, unless Pakistan's polity redfines itself, i fear we will find ourselves plunged into a bitter crisis which helps no one.
The Pakistani civil society has a huge role to play now, their media has to bell the cat. They must create a public opinion in the nation that compels politicians to work with consensus and for the country and not just for their personal agendas. It's time for Pakistan to shake up it's feudal ties and knot political coalation that works... otherwise once again army will take forefront and we will have more of the same once again...but in a more dangerous way.
Musharraf has vacated office, he must be the rarest of the dictator's to bow out with immense dignity and face. It must be to Musharraf's credit that this man has well honed survival instincts and uses adversity to his credit. While the world is going ga ga about the fact it has rid itself of a great dictator, the events unfolding in Pakistan show that he may be out but not yet without a clout.
It wasn't without reason Musharraf allowed USA to fire missiles from Pakistani territory on targets in Pakistani territory. Today Musharraf can rely on those upon whom he has doled out favors. Musharraf knows the moment he allowed Pakistan to become an ally in war against terror, he will cause these terror elements to go against him forever, nothing will change that. The growing power of India on world stage quickly changed Musharraf to change tones, the very man who sunk the Agra summit for his hard stand on Kashmir, suddenly harped on various middle ground solutions when he realized the world will never support his way on the issue.
So what's the situation after him? Simple, Pakistan's democracy is in a crisis, there is a minority government, the way issues are going downhill and Musharraf must be smiling. Now the existence of democracy in Pakistan in a barely few months has left created a large leader from SINDH, and another a large leader from PUNJAB, with ungoverned tribal areas having their tall separatist leaders this is perhaps the 'time' when Pakistan has been most fractured in it's history.
While a large section of civil society of urban Pakistan is progressive and forward looking it still cannot match the manner in which polity is degenerating the state. Now comes the major question... what happens to a divided Pakistan?
The first knee jerk reaction will come from Pakistani army, it will like to keep it all together, and the single issue that binds Pakistan is Kashmir. Full stop.
Expect incursions to increase, expect cease fire on LOC to be history, unless Pakistan's polity redfines itself, i fear we will find ourselves plunged into a bitter crisis which helps no one.
The Pakistani civil society has a huge role to play now, their media has to bell the cat. They must create a public opinion in the nation that compels politicians to work with consensus and for the country and not just for their personal agendas. It's time for Pakistan to shake up it's feudal ties and knot political coalation that works... otherwise once again army will take forefront and we will have more of the same once again...but in a more dangerous way.